The green economy is coming to Southern Africa. New energy projects are being planned. Old coal plants are being scheduled for closure. Governments are signing climate commitments and setting carbon targets.
But here is the question that rarely gets asked loudly enough: whose jobs are being created, and whose are being lost?
A just transition is not simply a shift from dirty energy to clean energy. It is a promise that the workers and communities who powered the old economy will not be abandoned to pay the cost of building the new one. In Southern Africa, that promise is not yet being kept.
This article examines what a just transition means, why workers in the region have reason to be worried, and what it will take to get this right.
What Is a Just Transition?
The term “just transition” comes from the labour movement. Trade unions in the United States coined it in the 1970s to describe the idea that workers displaced by environmental regulation deserved support — retraining, income protection, and a say in what came next.
The concept has since been adopted by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), the United Nations, and numerous governments. The ILO defines it as a transition that is as fair and inclusive as possible for all those affected, creating decent work opportunities and leaving no one behind.
In theory, most governments in the region accept this principle. In practice, the policy frameworks to deliver it are thin, underfunded, and often developed without the workers most affected at the table.
“A just transition is not simply a shift from dirty energy to clean energy. It is a promise that the workers who powered the old economy will not be left to pay the cost of building the new one.”
Southern Africa’s High Stakes
Southern Africa is one of the most coal-dependent regions on earth. South Africa generates more than 80 per cent of its electricity from coal. Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, and Mozambique all have significant fossil fuel industries — either producing, exporting, or relying on coal and gas for power.
The communities built around these industries are not abstract. They are towns like Emalahleni in South Africa’s Mpumalanga province, where hundreds of thousands of people depend directly or indirectly on the coal sector. They are rural communities in Zimbabwe’s Hwange district, where mining has shaped livelihoods for generations. They are families in Mozambique’s Tete province, living alongside one of the largest coal deposits on the continent.
When the coal economy contracts — and it will, driven by global finance, investor pressure, and climate policy — these communities face a choice that was never put to them: adapt or be left behind.
The transition is already happening. What is lagging is the “just” part.
What Workers Stand to Lose
The risks are not hypothetical. Research on decarbonisation across Southern Africa — including work conducted by Zonge Research International researchers in Zambia, Kenya, and Mozambique — points to several patterns that should concern anyone who cares about the future of work in the region.
Job losses are concentrated and immediate. When a mine closes or a coal plant is decommissioned, job losses hit fast and in one place. The promised green jobs, by contrast, arrive slowly, in different locations, and often require different skills.
New energy jobs do not go to the same workers. Solar installation and wind energy maintenance require technical skills that displaced coal miners rarely have without significant retraining. Without active policy intervention, the green economy will create jobs — just not for the workers who need them most.
Women and informal workers bear a hidden cost. When a primary breadwinner loses work in a mining town, the ripple effects move quickly through informal economies that are disproportionately run by women. Petty traders, domestic workers, and small service providers lose their customer base. These losses rarely appear in official transition plans.
Social infrastructure collapses. In company towns, private employers often fund schools, clinics, and roads. When the employer leaves, the infrastructure leaves too. Communities are left with degraded services at exactly the moment when they need them most.
The Research Evidence
Zonge Research International’s researchers have examined the intersection of climate change, employment, and just transition across the SADC region.
A study on decarbonisation and structural transformation in Kenya, Zambia, and Mozambique — looking at the role of hydroelectric power generation — found that the shift to cleaner energy sources does not automatically translate into better working conditions or more equitable employment. Growth and equity do not move together unless policy forces them to.
Separate research on climate change and just transition in Zimbabwe found that trade unions and civil society organisations were largely absent from national climate policy processes. Nationally Determined Contributions — the country-level climate plans submitted to the United Nations — were being drafted by environment ministries with little input from labour departments, trade unions, or affected communities.
This matters enormously. If workers are not at the table when transition plans are made, their interests will not be in the plans.
“If workers are not at the table when transition plans are made, their interests will not be in the plans.”
What Trade Unions Are Doing — and Why It Is Not Enough
Trade unions in Southern Africa have not been passive. SATUCC — the Southern Africa Trade Union Coordination Council — has produced policy positions on just transition and climate justice. National unions in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia have engaged with government processes, sometimes effectively.
Training programmes on climate justice and just transition have been run for trade union organisers across the region, helping workers understand the policy landscape and articulate demands.
But the structural barriers are significant. Trade union density in Southern Africa has been falling for decades. Informal workers — who face the greatest vulnerability in a transition — are largely outside union structures altogether. And government climate policy processes remain dominated by environment and finance ministries, where labour voices carry less weight.
What trade unions are doing is necessary. It is not sufficient.
Six Things a Just Transition Must Include
Based on the research evidence and the policy landscape in Southern Africa, a just transition that deserves the name must include all of the following.
1. Mandatory social dialogue. Just transition plans must be negotiated with trade unions and affected communities — not presented to them after the fact. This is not a procedural nicety. It is the only way to ensure that plans reflect the actual needs of workers.
2. Comprehensive social protection. Workers displaced by the transition need income support, not just promises of future jobs. Extended unemployment benefits, early retirement options for older workers, and targeted support for women-headed households must be built into transition budgets.
3. Funded retraining, not just training. Retraining programmes are only useful if workers can access them without losing income during the process, if the skills taught match actual job opportunities, and if transport and childcare barriers are addressed. Most current programmes fail on at least two of these three tests.
4. Local economic diversification. Transition planning must go beyond individual workers to address entire communities. This means public investment in economic diversification for coal-dependent towns and regions — new industries, improved infrastructure, and support for small and medium enterprises.
5. Inclusion of informal workers. Any just transition plan that does not address the informal economy is planning for the minority. Governments and unions must develop mechanisms to reach and support informal workers who will be affected by economic restructuring.
6. Climate finance that reaches workers. Billions of dollars of international climate finance are flowing into Southern Africa. Very little of it is tracked to ensure it reaches workers and communities rather than corporations and governments. Accountability mechanisms must be strengthened.
The Role of Research
Getting the just transition right requires evidence. Which communities are most exposed? Which workers are least likely to find new employment without support? What retraining models actually work in low-resource settings? Where is climate finance going, and who is benefiting?
These are not questions that can be answered from a capital city. They require field research, community engagement, and longitudinal tracking of what happens to workers and communities as the transition unfolds.
This is the kind of research that Zonge Research International is built to do. Our researchers work in the communities most affected by these shifts — in Malawi’s Shire Valley, in Zimbabwe’s mining districts, in Zambia’s agricultural heartlands. We bring rigorous methods and deep local knowledge to questions that matter for workers across the region.
Whose Green Economy?
The shift to a green economy is not a choice. Climate change is already reshaping livelihoods across Southern Africa — through droughts, erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events. The transition away from fossil fuels will happen, driven by global finance and climate policy, whether or not Southern African governments plan for it.
The choice is whether that transition is just.
A green economy built on the backs of displaced workers, hollowed-out mining towns, and informal traders who lost their livelihoods is not a success. It is a rebranding of the same old story: growth that benefits some and costs others.
Workers in Southern Africa deserve better than that. They deserve transition plans that were built with them, retraining that actually leads to decent work, and social protection that holds them steady while the economy shifts beneath their feet.
At Zonge Research International, we are committed to producing the research that helps our partners make that case — and make it stick.
